Thursday 14 June 2007

Is the Dubai residential property a bubble which is about to burst?

Recent contradicting reports from many experts suggest many scenarios but none of these are predicting a gloomy one that might bring the Dubai property market to its knees.The most recent report by MEED suggests that the market is more robust than many observers realize.Since the introduction of freehold properties in 2002 the Dubai market has seen a rise in prices of over 200% and is likely to still grow over the next few years but possibly not at the same pace.After 5 years the Dubai property boom is still riding on a high and many believe that the soaring performance has been underpinned by speculation that has created a property bubble in the emirate. One which, they say is set to burst.The true indication to how a market would react is the balance of supply and demand, so far demand has stripped all the supply in the market. In the next three years experts are forecasting a supply of 175,000 new residential units which will enter the market while other estimate it at between 170,00 to 240,000 units (a mix of villas and apartments).The only factor that would drive demand in this case is the rising number of population, it is forecasted that the population will grow to be 2.5 million by 2010.MEED predicts an additional 181,000 units will be required by the end of 2010, although it could be higher as more employment is needed to cater for the tourism and the aviation boom.MEED has produced a range of scenarios using population figures of 2 million and 2.5 million, residents per unit of 5, 5.5 and 6, and a total supply of 400,000 units. The most conservative scenario, with a low population and high residents per unit, predicts there will be an excess of 68,000 units in 2010. The most bullish scenario, using low residents per unit and a high population, predicts there will be a shortfall of 99,000 units. By taking a simple average, MEED predicts that instead of a crash there will be a shortfall of about 10,000 units in 2010.The above statement contradicts with what some analysts are predicting, they are saying that the correction is inevitable and it will happen by the end of 2009, this might be true if the increase of population is to halt but as far as the people keep coming then the market is far from being boom and bust market.

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